Thanksgiving Special
It's clear to anyone who knows the importance of Thanksgiving across the US that it impacts the regular life of all Americans. But how significantly, and in what ways, does driving activity during Thanksgiving week deviate from a regular week?
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How the holidays change our driving.
It's clear to anyone who knows the importance of Thanksgiving across the US that it impacts the regular life of all Americans. But this begs the question: how significantly, and in what ways, does driving activity during Thanksgiving week deviate from a regular week?
The week is defined by a sharp drop in road activity, and with it, a drop in incidents. The recurring theme: less traffic on the road (and likely less stress) increases safety. The exceptions, where risk concentrates, are the most interesting part of the story.
Traffic volume drops sharply.
The first takeaway is unambiguous. Traffic volume drops sharply, reduced by over 39% compared to the regular average in November and December. As expected, the biggest reduction is on Thanksgiving Day itself, with a contraction of more than 54% compared to other Thursdays.
Monday to Wednesday are the days with the biggest movement, each responsible for 17 to 18% of the week's traffic, and even during those days we see a reduction of over 27% of traffic on the street.
Thanksgiving Day Traffic
The single deepest contraction of the week, more than half of a normal Thursday's road activity simply disappears as the country gathers indoors.
Fewer cars, fewer incidents.
The number of incidents also reduces 31.5% compared to regular weeks, with Thanksgiving again dropping over 61% against the Thursday average.
The safest period is Thanksgiving Day itself: not only the lowest amount of traffic (10.9% of the week) but an even lower share of incidents (8.1%). That means the chance of having an incident on Thanksgiving Day is 26% lower than normal.
The relation between traffic and incidents is relatively similar across the rest of the week, with one highlight: a slight increase in the probability of registering an incident on Tuesday (+15%) and Wednesday (+8%).
Once again, this gives credit to the empirical knowledge from our previous analyses: a lesser amount of traffic on the road, and probably less stress as well, increases safety on the road.
After lunch turns more dangerous.
In the days preceding Thanksgiving, the behavior pattern is relatively similar to past analyses, with similar peaks and an increased propensity for incidents during daylight hours, the biggest impact landing between 1 PM and 5 PM. The difference versus any other week is a tendency to flatten and distribute incidents more evenly across the hours, by Wednesday, sub-peaks appear as early as 10 AM.
The aftermath also differs: from Friday to Sunday we see only a slight recovery in activity, and the peak tends to come slightly sooner, between 12 PM and 4 PM.
The most dangerous hours shift slightly this week. On several days, 2 PM is not only one of the peaks in incidents but also one of the moments that consistently surpasses the expected baseline. The moments after lunch tend to be more dangerous than usual.
Source chart: traffic and incident hourly evolution across Thanksgiving week (traffic %, incidents %, and the incident-vs-traffic delta). Hour-level series shown as a visual in the source report.
Pre-dinner, and after-dinner.
Thanksgiving Day is a peculiar one: the amount of traffic on the road is largely reduced, even compared to the week's pattern. The activity line is relatively stable and almost flat across the day, and for almost every hour the incident level sits below the expected baseline. Even so, the evolution of rides and incidents points to two moments to keep in mind, the pre-dinner and the after-dinner.
The afternoon period leading up to pre-dinner shows a steady, constant reduction of traffic since 12 PM, but a slight, sudden peak of incidents appears during the 6 PM block. Nothing like the regular everyday pattern, but a distinct change in the day's shape.
The most relevant period runs from 10 PM until 12 AM, with a noticeable increase in incidents, especially relative to the (very low) amount of traffic on the road. At 11 PM, the propensity for incidents is 28% higher.
DC swings the most.
The impact across states varies widely. The immediate attention goes to Washington DC, where the regular propensity to register an incident jumps from −0.66% likeliness to +6.68% on Thanksgiving Day, an increase of 7.34 points. Washington, West Virginia, and Delaware also face an increase of over 1 point compared to a regular day.
On the opposite side, Wyoming sees a meaningful reduction, going from the worst propensity on a regular day (+1.88%) to one of the lowest indices during Thanksgiving (−1%), a reduction of 2.88 points. Hawaii shows a similar, noteworthy behavior.
| State | Regular Day | Thanksgiving | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington DC | −0.66% | +6.68% | +7.34 pts |
| Wyoming | +1.88% | −1.0% | −2.88 pts |
Values are incident-propensity index points. Washington, West Virginia, and Delaware each rose more than 1 point; Hawaii fell notably alongside Wyoming. Exact figures shown where the report states them.
Less traffic, safer roads.
Thanksgiving week reshapes American driving in a consistent direction: far less traffic, and with it, fewer incidents. Thanksgiving Day stands out as the safest day of all, with a 26% lower chance of an incident. The risk that remains is concentrated and predictable, the post-lunch 2 PM window earlier in the week, the late-night 10 PM to 12 AM stretch on the day itself, and a handful of states (led by DC) that buck the trend.
Once again, the data reinforces the empirical pattern from our previous analyses: a lesser amount of traffic on the road, and likely less stress, increases safety on the road.
Thanksgiving Special · How the holidays change our driving. Analysis by Rui Carneiro · November 2025 · Nexar.